Biogen started at sell by UBS
Analyst Carter Gould comments:
“Key focal points for investors:
- Is there still growth left in MS for Biogen?
- UBS View: Not much. We expect the franchise to peak in the next 12 months, given (1) emerging competition, (2) potential for increased payor/PBM management, and (3) potential IP tail risk
- Will the Spinraza launch beat expectations?
- UBS View: Yes. However, emerging gene therapies could displace Spinraza by 2020, minimizing benefit of a better launch in our valuation
- Will phase 3 aducanumab studies read-out positively in Alzheimer’s?
- UBS View: We assign a 30% POS, but see this as setting up more for a 2018 debate
- Where could we be wrong? MS growth surprises or Spinraza beats to the upside”