Gilead vs. Intercept NASH debate heats up: Citi
The analysts notes key debates include:
- Market Size,
- GILD vs. ICPT NASH programs,
- who has a better FXR?,
- who has a better development strategy?,
- first mover advantage and
- would there be only one winner in the NASH market?
NASH market is $7B according to Robyn’s GILD analysis, while Joel’s ICPT analysis suggests $20B.
They highlight a key Binary event as GILD’s FXR ph 2 data would be avaialble late’17/early18.
For Gilead, success is $3-$6/sh upside as NASH is not in numbers.
For Intercept, Joel believes downside IF Gilead has a better SAFETY profile and similar/better efficacy. He also only models 20% share so if Gilead’s drugs FAIL.. there could be upside.The value of ICPT without NASH is ~$55/share.