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Gilead vs. Intercept NASH debate heats up: Citi

March 20, 2017

Citi analysts Robyn Karnauskas and Joel Beatty sees the Gilead (NASDAQ: GILD) vs. Intercept (NASDAQ: ICPT) NASH debate heating up in late ‘17/early ‘18.

The analysts notes key debates include:

  1. Market Size,
  2. GILD vs. ICPT NASH programs,
  3. who has a better FXR?,
  4. who has a better development strategy?,
  5. timelines,
  6. Pricing,
  7. first mover advantage and
  8. would there be only one winner in the NASH market?

NASH market is $7B according to Robyn’s GILD analysis, while Joel’s ICPT analysis suggests $20B.

They highlight a key Binary event as GILD’s FXR ph 2 data would be avaialble late’17/early18.

For Gilead, success is $3-$6/sh upside as NASH is not in numbers.

For Intercept, Joel believes downside IF Gilead has a better SAFETY profile and similar/better efficacy. He also only models 20% share so if Gilead’s drugs FAIL.. there could be upside.The value of ICPT without NASH is ~$55/share.


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