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Sarepta Duchenne scripts almost double since Nov.: Baird survey

April 21, 2017

Baird analsyt Brian Skorney notes that their latest survey of of 33 neurologists, which treats 6% of the U.S. DMD population, showed prescribing of Sarepta Therapeutics (NASDAQ: SRPT) Exondys 51 has “almost doubled” since their last survey in November.

In November, only 23% of the neurologists had started prescribing Exondys 51. This time we saw a modest increase to 30%, the analyst noted.

Skorney also noted that there was a increase in the genotyping rate, which he said is “encouraging”. “When we first surveyed neurologists in November, they too indicated that 42% of their patients had yet to be genotyped,” he commented. “This time, repeat respondents indicate that there was an increase in the genotyping rate of over 10%.”

Further, the analyst noted a ~70% increase in patients on drug after delays in initiating therapy due to ports being put in or or reimbursement issues. “In November, docs estimated that by the end of 2016, they would have 15 patients on drug, meaning that 1Q17 could have seen ~70% growth in number of patients on therapy,” he commented.

Skorney commented that assuming $5.4M in 4Q16 represented only half a quarter of sales, 70% growth with a modest decline in price due to age mix would give us ~$17.5M for the first quarter. They are modeling $15.3M versus consensus of $13.8M and guidance of $13M-$15M.

The firm maintained a Outperform price target of $102.00.


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