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Incyte target raised to $166 by BMO

June 6, 2017

BMO Capital analyst, Ian Somaiya, reiterated his Outperform rating on shares of Incyte (NASDAQ: INCY) and raised the price target to $166 after he increased probability of success in NSCLC to 80% from 50% and assumed higher share in the 1L setting (30% from 22%) after data presentations at ASCO and meeting with INCY management. This led to the analyst raising his peak sales estimate for epacadostat to $5bn from $4bn.

The analyst believes that ECHO-202 data provide a clear path forward in 70% of patients with PDL-1 <50% and to a lesser extent PDL-1 >50%. Also, higher-than-expected ORR (~30%) of chemo alone in patients failing PD-1s could also lead to more aggressive use of PD-1 + epacadostat frontline.

The new PT of $166 is up from $155.


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