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All you need know about CBO forecast accuracy in 2 charts

July 22, 2017

Even as the Republican effort to repeal Obamacare in recent months has suffered one humiliating loss after another, at the hands of none other than the very same Republican party, one government agency has been repeatedly scapegoated for the GOP’s failure to come up with a credible and passable alternative to Obamacare: the Congressional Budget Office. Then agan, while hardly an excuse for their sheer incompetence, the GOP is certainly right to point the finger at the CBO’s track record of “forecasts”, one which we have mocked here on occasion after occasion after occasion.

And here, in just two charts, is why when it comes to matters of predictive accuracy, the CBO is almost as bad as the Federal Reserve.

First, here is the CBO’s history of Obamacare enrollment forecasts…

… and here is its projection on the trajectory of US debt.

http://bit.ly/2tQ9S24

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